The votes have been counted and yes, the Conservatives have won and Stephen Harper will be Prime Minister of Canada. However, the Conservatives won with an incredibly slim minority, just 124 out of 308 seats. They have only 21 more seats than the new Official Opposition Liberals and will have to bargain with three left of centre parties to pass their platform.
There seems to be a lot of doom running around. I've had to brush off panic and anger from some of my friends in response to the results and Ubie left this comment, "It'll be okay. We've survived in the face of tyranny and misrule, you shall, too."
I really must reiterate; it's not that bad. Had the Conservatives won 155 seats I'd probably be sitting in a corner in the fetal position too, but with the current political situation, there really isn't much to worry about. The Conservatives will likely be limited to a compromised tax cut that includes both their promised immediate 1% cut to the sales tax and the personal income tax cuts for the lowest earners preferred by the liberals and NDP; tougher sentences for gun crime, which all four parties support in one way or another; minimum wait time guarantees which the other parties will gladly support so long as there is a clear commitment to public health care and finally; addressing the "fiscal imbalance" between the federal government and the provinces, something the Bloc Quebecois will throw itself behind so long as there is an actual commitment of cash. Sure, the Government completely controls foreign policy, but without legislative support that means little; there will be no abandonment of Kyoto, and we won't be rushing off to Iraq (not that the Conservatives have suggested the latter in this, or the previous election).
Now that the fear of a majority is gone, it's time to accept the reality of a Conservative minority government. I agree, it's not the best outcome I could have hoped for, but it's not a terrible one. Even if the Conservatives did somehow pass legislation to threaten a woman's right to choose or equal marriage, the Supreme Court would strike down any such laws. In the unlikely event that an issue got to that stage and the Conservatives then even attempted to use the notwithstanding clause, they could kiss governance goodbye come the next election, guaranteed.
There is some worry that the Conservatives will be able to use a closely tethered minority government situation to their benefit. Their precarious situation will force the party leadership to keep the extremists within the party gagged and they will likely focus on only legislation they can pass, not wanting to aggravate their poor relationships with the other parties further.
The Liberals, once they have selected a leader to replace Paul Martin, who announced his intention to resign as party leader during his concession speach last night, will likely not waste much time before working with the rest of the opposition to bring down the government on a vote of no confidence. This Parliament will likely last longer than its predecessor but that means two and a half to three years, tops; if the Conservatives really screw up, less. When that happens, I am confident the Liberals will be returned to power. This election was more a referendum on Paul Martin's leadership than a true endorsement of Stephen Harper or the Conservative Party of Canada.
This will be my last political post for a while, I promise.
...unless something totally crazy happens.
Keep on Tranglin,
Anthony
16 comments:
Übie is right, but the first time I see Harper on his knees in front of W. I'm going to call a SWAT Team for an intervention.
Monkey - Do you mean to say the first time you see Harper satifying Bush orally?
Anthony - Your perspective really throws things into stark relief. I was under the impression that this guy is going to wreak havok, but it sounds like he's going to have his hands full trying to appease the liberals by coming up with legislation that everyone can get behind, or at least the majority or everyone. That was one sentence.
I think this system of No-Confidence voting seems flawed. For instance wy couldn't the liberals just call for a vote right now? Ae there term limits for the PM or the other politicians?
Oh, and Happy Birthday.
Jerk.
u do make a good point... my whiney anger against the conservatives has seemed to diminish, a bit.
sidenote: i dont feel i need to restate the obvious birthday comment, seeing as ive annoyed u enough with "happy this" and "birthday that".
...also: thanks for putting eclectic head and my other blog up. :)
HAPPY BIRTHDAY
Oh an in responce to becca i think the next leader will me Brian Tobin
Thanks for all the birthday greetings.
Nick- There are lots of pros and cons to a system that allows the Prime Minister to call an election at any time, and allows a majority opposition to bring down the government on a vote of no confidence.
The Liberals can't bring down the government right now for several reasons:
1- Simply, the new Parliament hasn't met yet.
2- The Liberals would need the support of all of its own caucus plus all of the Bloc Quebecois and the 1 independant, or the entire oppostion including the NDP, and that kind of suppport right now is unlikely- but I guess possible.
3- A vote of no confidence can only happen on very few occasions including the budget and an opposition day (which are usually limited during a minority government).
And Canada does not have term limits for Prime Ministers. John A. McDonald our first PM served 6 non-consecutive terms for a total of something like 19 years, and our longest serving PM William Lyon Mackenzie King also served 6 terms for a total of over 21 years. Nothing anthing like those two since WW2 but Chretien served 10 years across three terms. Technically there is nothing to prevent Harper from being PM until he dies, or forever if he becomes a cyborg, or until he wraps up the country and gives it to GWB as a Christmas present.
My guess for the next leader of the Liberal party is: Frank McKenna, cause he just resigned as Ambassador to the US, so he is obviously getting ready to make the move.
I think Brian Tobin is too much of a faded star for the job, and Belinda might be a good candidate for the next leader after this new one, but she is too politically inexperienced and too new to the Liberal party, although I think her win cemented her into long term support in her riding, and a guaranteed space as a shadow cabinet critic.
Other good chances to run for leader are John Manley, Bill Graham, Ralph Goodale and Michael Ignatieff although I think they all have too much going against them to win.
Happy Birthday.
I know nothing about Canadian politics, so forgive me, but I'd like to make 2 comments:
(1) The Liberal Party in Australia is the conservative party - crazy, huh!
(2) I'm in no position to comment on anything you're written, but I would like to point out that much the same thing was said about the Liberal Party when it came to power in Australia in the mid 90s. It was often said that John Howard, our PM, wouldn't be able to do this or that, and that if he did push the country too far to the right, then he'd never get reelected...end of story.
Well he didn't really push the country too far to the right... or at least in one shove. Instead he's been doing it bit by bit, and now, one decade after coming to power, Australia is significantly different than what it was a decade ago. Just a thought.
Kallun, you're right, there is a possibility of the Conservatives using a minority position in Parliament as a stepping stone to majority, although this hasn't been done by a Conservative party in Canada since the 60's when Diefenbaker was able to do that. The most recent Conservative minority, Joe Clark's, was defeated by the Liberals and NDP after less than a year when it tryed to force a heavy handed budget through Parliament. Canadian politics are starkly partisan, more so than even American politics and minority Governments last an average of 18 months in this country because coalitions tend to be formed only for individual votes and not on a permanent basis.
The basis for my belief the Liberals will regain control soon is based on a various factors that are more in depth, but I fear making this far too long for a response if I go into them all. Basically I think that Canadians wanted a temporary change of Government not a permanent change of the political culture, and voted out the Liberals rather than voting in the Conservatives (which I think is reflected in the small margin by which the conservatives won). I might save this for a full post in the future.
hmmm you seem to be lacking in comments today...
...i'll change that
but not right now. i am tired. and that trumps boredum.
so i shall leave you with this
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